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El Niño Climate Intelligence
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EL NIÑO ALERT · Pacific warming intensifies · BC atmospheric river risk elevated · California precipitation probabilities increasing · Australia drought watch active · Trade wind weakening continues
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SST Anomaly
+1.2°C
Sea surface temperature anomaly — Niño 3.4 region.
Trade Winds
−0.7
Pacific easterly wind weakening indicator.
SOI Index
−8.4
Tahiti vs Darwin atmospheric pressure spread.
Thermocline
108m
Subsurface Pacific heat layer depth.
Pacific Heat
↑
Eastward migration of Pacific heat anomalies.
Global Risk
72
Composite climate volatility index.
Global ENSO Impact Intelligence Map
11 Active Regions
BC / Pacific NW
Prairies
California
Caribbean
Amazon
South America
S. Africa
E. Africa
India
Indonesia
Australia
Arctic
Arctic
Warming Accelerated
El Niño years contribute to accelerated Arctic warming. Disrupted polar vortex patterns can push cold air southward, impacting weather across the northern hemisphere.
Pacific Northwest & Western Canada
Warm & Dry Winter
Warmer, drier winters with reduced snowpack in Coast and Rocky Mountains. Elevated wildfire risk and stressed salmon runs from low, warm river flows.
Canadian Prairies & Northern US
Mild Winter
Warmer, drier winters affecting snowpack, spring flooding risk, and wheat production across the prairies.
California & US Southwest
Above-Normal Rain
Heavy rainfall, flooding, and mudslides in strong events. Significant impact on winter precipitation and water supply.
Caribbean & Central America
Drought / Storm Shift
Drought on Pacific side, suppressed Atlantic hurricane activity, and disrupted agricultural cycles across the region.
The Amazon Basin
Fire Risk
Reduced rainfall dries the rainforest, increasing fire risk and suppressing one of Earth's most critical carbon sinks.
Peru & Ecuador
Ground Zero
Warm waters shut down the Humboldt Current, collapsing fisheries and triggering catastrophic coastal flooding. El Niño was named here.
Southern Africa
Drought
Consistent drought during El Niño years threatening food security across Zimbabwe, Zambia, and Mozambique.
East Africa
Above-Normal Rain
Unlike Southern Africa, El Niño brings above-normal rainfall and flooding to Kenya, Ethiopia, and Somalia — often triggering humanitarian crises.
India & South Asia
Weakened Monsoon
Weakened Indian Ocean monsoon leading to reduced rainfall, drought stress, and below-average agricultural yields.
Indonesia & the Philippines
Drought & Fires
Prolonged drought, crop failures, and devastating wildfire seasons. Indonesia's 1997 fires were largely El Niño-driven.
Australia
Severe Drought
Severe drought, bushfire conditions, and failed agricultural seasons. Among the most reliable and damaging El Niño signals on Earth.
The 11 ENSO Impact Regions
Global Coverage
1. Peru & Ecuador
Ground Zero
Warm waters collapse the Humboldt Current, devastating fisheries and triggering catastrophic coastal flooding. El Niño was named here by Peruvian fishermen.
2. Australia
Severe Drought
Severe drought, bushfire conditions, and failed agricultural seasons in east and southeast Australia.
3. Indonesia & Philippines
Drought & Fires
Prolonged drought, crop failures, and devastating wildfire seasons. Indonesia's 1997 fires were largely El Niño-driven.
4. California & US Southwest
Above-Normal Rain
Heavy rainfall, flooding, and mudslides during strong events. Significant winter precipitation impact.
5. The Amazon Basin
Fire Risk
Reduced rainfall dries the rainforest, increasing fire risk and suppressing a critical global carbon sink.
6. Southern Africa
Drought
Consistent drought during El Niño years threatening food security across Zimbabwe, Zambia, and Mozambique.
7. India & South Asia
Weakened Monsoon
Weakened Indian Ocean monsoon, reduced rainfall, drought stress, and below-average agricultural yields.
8. East Africa
Above-Normal Rain
El Niño brings above-normal rainfall and flooding to Kenya, Ethiopia, and Somalia — often triggering humanitarian crises.
9. Caribbean & Central America
Drought / Storm Shift
Drought on Pacific side, suppressed Atlantic hurricane activity, and disrupted agricultural cycles.
10. Canadian Prairies & Northern US
Mild Winter
Warmer, drier winters affecting snowpack, spring flood risk, and wheat production.
11. Pacific Northwest & Western Canada
BC Focus
Warmer, drier winters. Reduced snowpack, elevated wildfire risk, stressed salmon runs, and low summer river flows across BC and the Pacific Northwest.
British Columbia Impact Layer
BC Focus
Snowpack Deficit
El Niño drives warmer winters across the Coast and Rocky Mountains, reducing snowpack accumulation. Lower snowpack means reduced river flows by July and August — critical for municipal water supply, agriculture, and hydro power.
Wildfire Amplification
Drier-than-normal conditions through late spring and summer create elevated fuel moisture deficits across interior BC. El Niño years correlate strongly with above-average wildfire seasons in the province.
Salmon Ecosystem Stress
Warm, low-volume rivers create thermal barriers for returning salmon. El Niño conditions compound existing pressures on Pacific salmon populations, with cascading effects on coastal and First Nations fisheries.
Atmospheric River Shift
ENSO conditions influence atmospheric river intensity and Pacific moisture transport patterns. El Niño can shift storm tracks, altering flooding risk and precipitation distribution across coastal BC.
Acadia & Atlantic Canada
Milder winters with reduced ice and snowfall. Shifting storm tracks and impacts on the inshore fishery across New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward Island.
Agriculture & Growing Season
Warmer spring conditions can advance growing seasons in the Okanagan and Fraser Valley, but drought stress and irrigation water shortages offset gains in dry El Niño years.
El Niño Signal Guide
Reference
SST Anomaly
Measures sea surface temperature departures from normal across the Niño 3.4 region of the central Pacific. Values above +0.5°C for 5 consecutive months define an El Niño event.
Trade Winds
Tracks easterly Pacific winds that normally push warm water westward. When they weaken or reverse, warm water spreads east — the primary trigger of El Niño development.
SOI Index
Southern Oscillation Index — measures atmospheric pressure differences between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia. Sustained negative values indicate El Niño conditions.
Thermocline Depth
The depth boundary between warm surface water and cooler deep Pacific water. A deepened eastern Pacific thermocline suppresses cold upwelling and sustains warming.
Walker Circulation
The atmospheric circulation engine that breaks down during El Niño, reversing trade wind patterns and connecting Pacific ocean conditions to global weather disruption.
Teleconnections
How a central Pacific warming event causes drought in India, floods in Ecuador, or fire conditions in Australia — distant but predictable climate links driven by ENSO.
Climate Intelligence Feed Engine™
Live Feed
El Niño
La Niña
ENSO
Atmospheric River
Flood Risk
Pacific Warming
Regional Desks
Global
British Columbia
Pacific Northwest
California
South America
Australia
India
Africa
Reuters Climate Desk · May 16 · Global
Pacific Ocean Heat Anomalies Continue Expanding Eastward
NOAA forecasters say warm oceanic conditions across the central Pacific continue strengthening seasonal ENSO probabilities heading into northern hemisphere summer.
Why It Matters — Higher Pacific heat anomalies can increase atmospheric river activity, alter storm tracks, and affect agriculture and insurance markets globally.
Environment Canada · May 16 · British Columbia
BC Monitoring Elevated Atmospheric River Risk
Pacific moisture transport systems are being closely monitored as El Niño conditions intensify across the Pacific Basin, with potential flooding implications for coastal communities.
Why It Matters — Flooding risk, infrastructure pressure, and transportation disruption can significantly impact Western Canadian economies and communities.
NOAA Climate Center · May 15 · Pacific Basin
Trade Wind Weakening Continues Across Equatorial Pacific
Climate monitoring systems continue observing weakened trade wind conditions associated with ongoing ENSO development across the equatorial Pacific.
Why It Matters — Trade wind disruption remains one of the core indicators that El Niño conditions may strengthen further in coming months.
Forecast Models
3-Month Outlook
Seasonal forecast models monitor the probability of El Niño, Neutral, and La Niña conditions using Pacific Ocean heat distribution and atmospheric circulation analysis.
3-Month Phase Probability
El Niño
62%
Neutral
28%
La Niña
10%
Model Sources
NOAA CFS
ECMWF SEAS5
NASA GMAO
Environment Canada
Australian BoM
UK Met Office
📡 Live ENSO Data — NOAA Feed
Loading...
About this data — The numbers below are pulled live from NOAA CPC official data feeds. They update monthly (SST weekly). These are the raw authoritative values — the ENSOcast front page metrics are editorially curated and may differ slightly.
SST Anomaly — Niño 3.4
Weekly OISST.v2.1 — 5°N–5°S, 170–120°W
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SOI Index
Standardized Tahiti minus Darwin SLP
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ONI — 3-Month Running Mean
Oceanic Niño Index — ERSSTv5, centered base periods
—
Trade Winds — Central Pacific
850mb zonal wind index — 175°W–140°W
—
Data Sources — NOAA Climate Prediction Center
cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ · Updated 5th of each month (monthly) · Weekly (SST)
Recent ONI History
| Season | ONI (°C) | Phase |
|---|---|---|
| Loading ONI history... | ||
Raw NOAA SST Feed Preview
Fetching NOAA data feed...
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